The edge is NOT “knowing your setups”

The edge IS “knowing the market conditions in which they work”

Market conditions cycle and setups cycle in the same way

To be consistently profitable you need to recognise your setups and the conditions in which they apply

You will be more successful learning to recognise the environment in which a setup works then by simply learning the setup itself

Many traders lose money applying perfectly good strategies in a part of the market cycle not suited to that strategy at that time

For example..

The Tazer technique is used to trade end of wave reversals

If you recognise the market environment that leads to reversals then you will know when to use the tool

If you can’t recognise exhaustion you will force the setup in a momentum break environment and get knocked out of every trade

All market models I build are on a rule of thumb basis

Propositions are generally held to be true

So as each season kicks in, I start testing market behaviour and when conviction kicks in so do the trades

Rules of thumb are more useful in markets then rigid rules

Observe, adapt, adopt, apply